Creating a new economic bubble through energy innovation
Monday, May 04, 2009
NPR has an article on this, their ninth of a ten-part series, an article reminiscent of Thomas L. Friedman's book Hot, Flat, and Crowded. The basic idea (the way I see it, anyway) is that energy innovation has been put off for far too long and now that just about all the major economic powers in the world are agreed on the need for new energy technology, we may see a new economic bubble as a result of this as a new industry springs into life. I'm fully convinced that the first major visible change to the way we use energy will be in the promulgation of the electric car, starting about two years from now when we first have a full range of options from a $20,000 car that gets the job done (Norway's Think City), a sedan for $50,000 (Tesla), a $100,000 roadster (Tesla again), and an electric car with a short range but gas as a backup for when taking it on longer trips (Chevrolet Volt). Note that none of these cars look ridiculous; they don't even look like electric cars unless you already know what these models look like.
The thing about these cars is that people actually want to drive them. Nobody is embarrassed to drive this:
or this:
or this.
...depending on your tastes of course. But none of these is a holy crap you'd never get me in one of those-type car.
Just the sheer popularity and convenience of these cars will IMO make them into must-have items for just about everybody in developed countries within five to ten years, and so that might make this proposed law in Norway to ban strictly gasoline-powered cars by 2015 a bit moot (though I doubt the law will go into effect anyway), because I suspect by then the writing will already be on the wall for only gasoline-powered cars, because by then the common perception of them will be that of noisy, smelly, annoying (checking gas prices and stopping to fill up), and just plain old-fashioned vehicles.
The renewable energy bubble the NPR article talks about might be easier to fashion in this respect, as since electric cars will still run on electricity which needs to be produced by something (coal, wind, gas, hydro, ...), this will make energy planning that much easier as an entire sector powered until now by gasoline will converge with other electricity-powered items, making electricity generation the number one issue to work on when considering emissions and sustainable energy.
Not to mention the national security benefits this would bring in not being beholden to varying energy prices originating from some of the least stable parts of the world. Reminds me of this book Bill Maher wrote a few years back:
Except that now the title would have to be changed. Maybe an image of Bin Laden waiting for you at the pump to fill up your gas-powered car, with a nozzle in one hand and a big smile.
3 comments:
Dave, what's up with Korean manufacturers? Are they jumping in electric car bandwagon? There are no news like this here in Europe, but maybe they are doing something on a local scale and you can hear that?
Actually, I've yet to see any info on their plans and I've wondered about this myself. I see the island of Jeju wants money from the government in order to create some sort of "online" electric car system, but I have no idea what that's about. I'll keep an eye out for anything interesting, but my sense is that they're not all that interested in innovation until other countries have shown electric cars to be viable. Could be wrong though.
Actually, I've yet to see any info on their plans and I've wondered about this myself. I see the island of Jeju wants money from the government in order to create some sort of "online" electric car system, but I have no idea what that's about. I'll keep an eye out for anything interesting, but my sense is that they're not all that interested in innovation until other countries have shown electric cars to be viable. Could be wrong though.
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